In a Nutshell
How likely is this team to get players booked or sent off? Some teams play cleanly with few fouls and rarely see a card. Others are aggressive and accumulate bookings rapidly, risking suspensions and red cards that leave them a player short. This signal measures each team’s own discipline risk — how many cards they pick up and how many fouls they commit. A well-disciplined team maintains its shape and avoids giving away dangerous free kicks.
Why It Matters
Teams with poor discipline face higher risk of suspensions, defensive disruption from accumulated bookings, and potential numerical disadvantages from dismissals. Well-disciplined teams maintain defensive organization and avoid creating dangerous set pieces against themselves.
How It's Calculated
Data Sources
Yellow and red card counts plus foul counts from territorial match statistics. Data is fetched per competition across the configured season scope (up to 3 seasons), aggregated from match-level records.
Key Formula
Primarily based on how many cards a team collects per match, with fouls as a secondary factor. Red cards count much more heavily than yellows because they carry far greater consequences (immediate player loss plus suspension). The result classifies each team from disciplined through to high risk.
Normalization
Card rates and foul rates are each measured against the range seen across all teams, from the cleanest to the most aggressive. The two teams’ scores are compared to determine which side faces greater discipline risk.
Confidence Impact
Requires at least 5 valid matches per team — below this, the signal is excluded entirely. Uncertainty is 0.45 at 5 matches, 0.35 at 6-7, and 0.25 at 8+ matches. A match only counts as valid if foul data is non-null; missing card data defaults to zero for that match.
Example
See how this signal played out in actual matches.
Liverpool vs Tottenham
Premier League — Dec 2024
What happened: Liverpool's metrics were consistently superior across this signal, aligning with the eventual 6-3 result. The signal correctly identified a significant imbalance.
View this match on xGoalMan City vs Everton
Premier League — Dec 2024
What happened: Both sides showed similar metrics for this signal — neither had a meaningful edge. The match ended 1-1, consistent with the balanced assessment.
View this match on xGoalAston Villa vs Arsenal
Premier League — Dec 2025
What happened: The signal leaned slightly toward Villa, but Arsenal's strengths in other signals offset this. This illustrates why no single signal tells the full story — context from all signals matters.
View this match on xGoalCommon Misconceptions
Myth: "Discipline Risk and Defensive Discipline measure the same thing"
Reality: They measure opposite perspectives. Discipline Risk measures a team’s own vulnerability (their card and foul accumulation). Defensive Discipline (error prone) measures how much the OPPONENT can exploit their errors. One looks inward, the other looks outward.
Myth: "Yellow and red cards are equally problematic"
Reality: Red cards are weighted at 3× a yellow in this signal, following the UEFA Fair Play ratio. A red card means immediate numerical disadvantage (10 vs 11) plus a suspension, making it roughly three times as impactful as a yellow.
Myth: "Aggressive teams always have poor discipline"
Reality: Some aggressive pressing teams maintain excellent discipline — they tackle hard but fairly. High fouls do not always mean high cards. The separate weighting (70% cards, 30% fouls) captures this nuance.
Advanced Insights
What This Signal Cannot Tell You
- No single signal determines match outcome
- All signals carry uncertainty that widens probability ranges
- Data freshness affects confidence in the assessment
- Context matters: signals interact with each other and with match circumstances
The Bottom Line
Measures team tendency to commit fouls and accumulate cards through a composite risk score combining cards per match (reds count as 2 yellows) and fouls per match. Use it alongside other signals for a balanced view of the match.
Related Signals
This signal works alongside others to build a complete picture.
Key Terms
Understand the terminology used in this signal.